Possible Propane Shortages Winter 2021

Possible Propane Shortages Winter 2021

Propane inventories built just 500,000/bbls this week, which was below expectations and below the norm we see for this time of year. For instance, we saw a 4.39M/bbl build one year ago this week, which was stronger than normal. National inventories were sitting at 95.2M/bbls one year ago this week, or a decline of nearly 26M/bbls, which is a year over year deficit of more than an all-time record months’ worth of winter propane demand. To put that another way, take the largest ever one-month winter drawdown number, and it still doesn’t match the current year over year deficit. So yeah, we are seriously lagging behind on the inventory front and the traditional inventory building season is quickly drawing to a close.  This has prices going into winter at an all time high.  If we have a need for crop drying in the Midwest this fall it could cause storage to drop quickly.  Our supply in the northwest comes from refineries in Washington and in Alberta Canada and they have plenty of supply, butour prices are based on the Midwest supply.  This means high prices this winter anyway you look at it. 

Cordially,
John Buller and Sons

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